What is the use of delphi method in demand forecasting
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Explain delphi method of demand forecasting
Answered by admin @
The Delphi method is a forecasting method based on the results of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts. Several rounds of questionnaires are sent out, and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round. The experts are allowed to adjust their answers in subsequent rounds. Since multiple rounds of questions are asked and the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole, the Delphi method seeks to reach the correct response through consensus.The Delphi method was originally conceived in the 1950s by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the Rand Corporation.
The Delphi method seeks to aggregate opinions from a diverse set of experts, and it can be done without having to bring everyone together for a physical meeting. Since the responses of the participants are anonymous, individual panelists don't have to worry about repercussions for their opinions. Consensus can be reached over time as opinions are swayed.
While the Delphi method allows for commentary from a diverse group of participants, it does not result in the same sort of interactions as a live discussion. Response times can be long ,which slows the rate of discussion. It is also possible that the information received back from the experts will provide no innate value.
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